Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 15.055321 17.174153 19.446455 22.060128 24.978817 28.133106 31.795216
2025-08-17 11.788022 14.650440 17.950741 22.019089 26.879813 32.480496 39.400497
2025-08-24 10.117778 13.290713 17.122676 22.057402 28.206088 35.574375 45.027518
2025-08-31 8.714025 12.041163 16.232122 21.845107 29.104621 38.109360 50.046855
2025-09-07 7.776583 11.228027 15.736175 21.979558 30.312964 40.952806 55.447409
2025-09-14 7.183130 10.788350 15.652458 22.591616 32.113771 44.581533 61.971689
2025-09-21 6.412281 10.009808 15.019213 22.373503 32.736970 46.635851 66.459946
2025-09-28 5.530099 8.975642 13.927841 21.408706 32.230977 47.091172 68.753442
2025-10-05 5.220208 8.753871 13.968697 22.034761 33.958356 50.649189 75.415171
2025-10-12 4.897208 8.476763 13.895977 22.470755 35.410485 53.858145 81.693546
2025-10-19 4.468505 7.990020 13.462057 22.322050 35.972915 55.794559 86.207501
2025-10-26 4.069787 7.512996 13.001393 22.088962 36.374452 57.486503 90.402020
2025-11-02 3.753707 7.152367 12.707797 22.110689 37.184503 59.846372 95.729528
2025-11-09 3.501137 6.877726 12.531925 22.304627 38.265338 62.651610 101.831450
2025-11-16 3.231146 6.544809 12.229207 22.260956 38.948872 64.855294 107.075971
2025-11-23 2.963447 6.189947 11.859908 22.075428 39.380721 66.669448 111.769483
2025-11-30 2.772248 5.958769 11.685128 22.201125 40.315102 69.290660 117.792502
2025-12-07 2.672324 5.892716 11.796198 22.822187 42.095810 73.315891 126.160422
2025-12-14 2.459120 5.583945 11.443906 22.600874 42.430547 75.009250 130.848385
2025-12-21 2.165951 5.084865 10.701195 21.627829 41.412953 74.435168 131.826865
2025-12-28 2.101071 5.051854 10.834703 22.259373 43.220487 78.596453 140.682275
2026-01-04 2.016742 4.969581 10.866203 22.699332 44.701967 82.255595 148.815973
2026-01-11 1.871642 4.741611 10.595121 22.549275 45.110634 84.101959 153.969187